Prediction of Settlement Distribution Patterns Based on Population Density in Ambon City for 2031

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Ambon City is driving population growth and demanding more extensive settlements. Low population density is increasing with growth and centralization in the city center, shaping new settlement distribution patterns. This study predicts settlement distribution patterns based on population density in Ambon City for 2031 using the Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model integrated with the Ambon RTRW 2011-2031 and statistical calculations. Analysis shows the highest densities in Sirimau Sub-district (1,713.42 people/km²) and Teluk Ambon Baguala (1,527.57 people/km²), with settlements concentrated in coastal and central zones, while hilly areas offer expansion potential. The Land Settlement Carrying Capacity Index (DDPm) of 1.27 indicates high capacity to accommodate projected population growth of 2,445,961 people in 2031, aligned with the national per capita space standard of 16 m²/person per Minister of Housing Regulation No. 11/Per-MenM/2008, supporting SDG 11 for sustainable cities.